Apple has sold-off over 20% year to date, but it did gain in one area. ComScore (an internet analytic’s company) reported that US consumers “overwhelmingly” preferred Apple’s iOS devices over the Android platform since 2013 began.

comScoreAccording to the latest data, in the past three months, there have been a total of 10.4 million new US subscribers. Of that number, Apple’s iPhone came out on top with 8.9 million new subscribers, while Android added a meager 2.9 million subscribers (the numbers don’t add up because Blackberry lost over a million subscribers).

 

ComScore dataApple and Samsung continue to cement their titan status in the US. On another note (I know it’s unrelated), but look at Motorola’s continued weakness (Google reports in a couple weeks).

 

The Technicals:

It looks like the possible inverted head and shoulders didn’t work out as I thought, but if you followed the trade (and hopefully hedged as suggested), you should be golden. Want to be clear I am not calling a bottom, I’m merely looking at the technicals:
 

AAPL1Apple is still posting positive divergences on its daily chart (both on the MACD and RSI). The $419 support has to hold, a break below that exposes the $400 level (and makes the chart look even more broken than it already is). Even though Apple broke its downtrend on the last run-up, it technically didn’t make it official by rallying above $485 (it needed to make a higher high).

 

AAPL2What I’d like to see: a pickup in volume. You can’t have a confirmed double bottom with lower volume than when it made its previous low.

 

AAPL3What worries me: Apple’s daily bollinger bands are beginning to expand, meaning a further move to the downside is very possible.

 

AAPLWhat gets me optimistic: Apple’s 50 day moving average has been in a downtrend since late last year. It finally looks like it’s starting to flatten, a sign of a bottom.

 

AAPL2The weekly chart still isn’t giving us any clues on whether to be a bull or a bear. Going forward, as long as you hedge, I still believe you can still play Apple on the long side.

 

Conclusion:

With earnings just around the corner, don’t forget that many analysts have finally started to lower estimates for both this quarter and the next. Can Apple revisit $400? Of course it’s possible. But as long as you hedge correctly, then there’s really no need to worry about your position. Hope this helped.

 
 

Questions? Comments? Leave me a reply.

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